How Much Straits Times Index Stocks does Temasek Own?

Click on How Much Straits Times Index Stocks does Temasek Own?
for the source.
https://www.drwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/cropped-drwealth-favicon-32×32.jpg Author: Alvin Chow

We know that many of our blue-chip stocks are partially owned by the Singapore Government sovereign wealth fund, Temasek Holdings. In fact, there are plenty of investors who find comfort in investing in Temasek-backed companies. I was curious to find how many of 30 Straits Times Index (STI) stocks had Temasek as a major shareholder. […]

Don’t Let Your HDB Flat Crush Your Dreams of Retirement

Click on Don’t Let Your HDB Flat Crush Your Dreams of Retirement
for the source.
https://www.drwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/cropped-drwealth-favicon-32×32.jpg Author: Irving Soh

There’s a common belief among the older generation that you can’t go wrong buying property in land-scarce Singapore. To be fair, their perspective is not without credit. The Merdeka generation – people born in the 1950s to 1960s – experienced tremendous property wealth growth by simply buying HDB flats. The same thing can no longer […]

7 Money Secrets from ex-editor of The Business Times, Mano Sabnani

Click on 7 Money Secrets from ex-editor of The Business Times, Mano Sabnani
for the source.
https://www.drwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/cropped-drwealth-favicon-32×32.jpg Author: Alvin Chow

Editor of the Business Times. Managing Editor of The Straits Times. Managing Director for Investments and Equity Capital Markets at DBS. CEO of Today.  That’s an illustrious career! While you thought he would be someone prominent, he is pretty much the opposite, preferring to shy away from the public eye. While shying from prominence, he […]
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Singapore REIT Bubble Charts Jan 2019

Click on Singapore REIT Bubble Charts Jan 2019
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Author: Marubozu

Bubble charts derived from Jan 1, 2019 Singapore REITs Fundamental Comparison Table. Two observations compared to last Bubble Charts.

(1) No significant changes compared to last bubble chart. The yield spread between small/mid cap REIT and large cap REIT remains wide. This represents opportunities in small/medium cap REIT as risk premium is attractive. Note: Distribution yield is lagging.

(2) There are no significant changes in gearing ratio.

 

These Bubble Charts are used to show the “relative” position compare to other Singapore REITs.

Two visual bubble charts to pick and avoid:

  1. Undervalue Singapore REITs with High Distribution Yield** (Value Pick)
  2. Overvalue Singapore REITs with High Gearing Ratio (Risk Avoidance)

** Distribution Yield are lagging.

Compared to previous Singapore REIT Bubble Charts here.

 

Disclaimer: The analysis is for Author own use and NOT to be used as Buy / Sell recommendation. Get a proper training on “How to use this Singapore REIT Bubble Charts?” here.

 

Check below on other events:

http://mystocksinvesting.com/course/singapore-reits-investing/REITs Investing Course 

http://mystocksinvesting.com/course/private-portfolio-review/REITs Portfolio Advisory 

http://mystocksinvesting.com/events/

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Singapore REIT Price / NAV Range Chart Jan-2019

Click on Singapore REIT Price / NAV Range Chart Jan-2019
for the source.
Author: Marubozu

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

Singapore REIT Price / NAV Range Chart base on Jan 1, 2019 Singapore REITs Table.

 

See last Singapore REITs Price/NAV here to see the changes.

Disclaimer: This chart is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell. Do NOT use it if you don’t understand how to interpret it.

 

Check below on other events:

http://mystocksinvesting.com/course/singapore-reits-investing/REITs Investing Course 

http://mystocksinvesting.com/course/private-portfolio-review/REITs Portfolio Advisory 

http://mystocksinvesting.com/events/

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Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 1 Jan 2019

Click on Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 1 Jan 2019
for the source.
Author: Marubozu

Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreased from 783.05  to 777.45 (-0.72%) as compared to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Dec 3, 2018.

Currently the index is trading in a down trend channel and testing a Resistance Turned Support at about 774. If this support holds, the REIT index will be moving side way in a consolidation range.

Based on the current chart pattern and trend analysis, the trend for Singapore REIT direction SIDE WAY to DOWN! The REIT index will be capped by the immediate resistance at about 800 which is the 200D SMA resistance and also the round number.

 

Fundamental Analysis of 39 Singapore REITs

The following is the compilation of 39 REITs in Singapore as of Dec 2018 with colour coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio. This gives investors a quick glance of which REITs are attractive enough to have an in-depth analysis. There are currently 39 REITs in Singapore after VIVA Industrial Trust merged into ESR REIT.

 

  • Price/NAV decreases from 0.94 to 0.93 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is under value now).
  • Distribution Yield increases from 7.16% to 7.24% (take note that this is lagging number). About 48.7% of Singapore REITs (19 out of 39) have Distribution Yield > 7%.
  • Gearing Ratio stays at 34.6%.  19 out of 39 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%. In general, Singapore REITs sector gearing ratio is healthy. Note: The limit of gearing ratio for REITs listed in Singapore Stock Exchange is 45%.
  • The most overvalue REIT is Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.52), followed by Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.32), Mapletree Industrial Trust (Price/NAV = 1.29) and Ascendas REIT (Price/NAV = 1.25).
  • The most undervalue (base on NAV) is OUE Comm REIT (Price/NAV = 0.52), followed by Fortune REIT (Price/NAV = 0.55), Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (Price/NAV=0.66), Keppel KBS US REIT (Price/NAV=0.70), Far East Hospitality Trust (Price/NAV = 0.70), Sabana REIT (Price/NAV = 0.75) and Starhill Global REIT (Price/NAV = 0.76).
  • The Highest Distribution Yield (TTM) is Lippo Mall Indonesia Retail Trust (13.96%), followed by Cromwell European REIT (10.64%), Keppel KBS US REIT (9,71%), OUE Comm REIT (9.72%), Sasseur REIT (9.36%), SoilBuild BizREIT (8.99%), EC World REIT (8.86%) and Cache Logistic Trust (8.63%).
  • The Highest Gearing Ratio are Far East HTrust (40.3%) and OUE Comm REIT (41.4%).

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

 

  • 1 month increases from 1.63433% to 1.64933%
  • 3 month increases from 1.75908% to 1.76808%
  • 6 month increases from 1.87918% to 1.88533%
  • 12 month increases from 2.06375% to 2.06702%

There were no knee jerk reaction for the FTSE ST REIT Index after the US Fed raised interest rate to 2.5% on Dec 19.

Based on current probability of Fed Rate Monitor, the US interest rate may stay at 2.5%.

 

 

 

Summary

Fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs is under value now.  Overall yield for Singapore REIT is very attractive (average yield of 7.26%) especially for small and mid cap REIT. The last time we have seen Price/NAV = 0.93 and Distribution Yield of more than 7% is back to Dec 2015. You may compare the Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table in Dec 2015 to see the similarity and you should be able to identify some attractive opportunities.

Yield spread (reference to 10 year Singapore government bond) has widened from 4.476% to 5.19%.  DPU yield for a number of small and mid-cap REITs are very attractive  (>8%) at the moment.  Some big cap REITs are also very attractive in terms of valuation and distribution yield. With the widening yield spread and potentially no further interest rate hike, this may be a good news for Singapore REITs in 2019.

Technically, the REIT index is entering into consolidation phase with immediate support at 774. As long as 760 support holds, it may be a good time for more accumulation because the risk premium is very attractive for small and medium cap REITs now. Investors can do some selective shopping when the down trend stop for those REITs.

Watch for the trend reversal for FTSE ST REIT index in 2019!

Happy hunting on Singapore REITs in 2019!

 

See all other relevant  Singapore REITs blog posts here.

If you need an independent professional review on your current REIT portfolio and need any recommendation, you may engage me in the REIT portfolio Advisory. REITs Portfolio Advisory.  http://mystocksinvesting.com/course/private-portfolio-review/

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NASDAQ Composite Index [^IXIC] (28 Dec 2018)

Click on NASDAQ Composite Index [^IXIC] (28 Dec 2018)
for the source.
Author: Marubozu

By: Soh YJ

 

Overall the ^IXIC continue a downward pressure. As the moving averages and MACD remain bearish.

 

Performance as at YTD 1 WK 1 MTH 3 MTH 6 MTH 1 YR 2 YR 5 YR
28 Dec 2018 0.08 4.19 -9.47 -18.08 -12.33 4.62 19.26 59.36

*Performance in %

 

 

After continuous of red candles over the month of December, ^IXIC gain a strong rebound on 26 Dec 2018 and ended the week with a doji candlestick, indicating the market is not certain the direction of the prices.

 

 

Events happen between 24 Dec – 28 Dec 2018

 

 

Annual Changes in NASDAQ 100 Index (24 December 2018)

NASDAQ-100, NDX, index is composed of the annual 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. Nasdaq-100 is re-ranked annually.

 

Inclusion Exclusion
AMD, LULU, NTAP, UAL, VRSN, WLTL ESRX, HOLX, QRTEA, SHPG, STX, VOD

 

How it affects me?

ETFs are designed to track the index, the rebalancing means the stocks in the basket would be sold or added, potentially changes the component’s position size. Meaning, individual stocks will increase it volatility during the rebalancing period.

 

 

Most Positive Movement (24 Dec – 28 Dec)

 

Criteria for screening:

 

  • Market capital (Over 300 million)
    • Small to Mid-cap ($3m to $2b) stocks may not fall into most investor radar yet, potential to grow. Too small may have higher risk

 

  • IPO more than 10 years
    • Have a history, less risk of the business failing

 

  • Current volume (over 200k)
    • Typical stocks have at least 100k trade volume per day

 

  • Price (Over $10)
    • Stock less than $5 are risky and prone to speculation

 

  • Institutional ownership (Over 40%)
    • Institute have more information than retail investors. If institute don’t own any of the stock, you should not too.

 

  • The price changes should be < index movement
    • Should be more volatile than index, else buying an Index ETF will be more efficient.

 

AMAT and ENTG is more suitable for Mid to long term investment as the gross profit, net income and cash flow is more stable.

 

ENTG AMAT ACLS PAR
Price (28 Dec 2018) 27.47 32.38 17.76 22.14
Performance Week[7] 8.11% 4.79% 7.05% 24.66%
Zack Ranking[9] Hold Hold Strong Sell Not available
Consistent increase in Gross profit  4Yrs [6] Yes Yes No Yes
Consistent increase in Net Income 4Yrs [6] No No No No
Consistent increase in Operation cash flow  4Yrs [6] Yes No No No
Mean projected growth rate[8] 18.03% 16.98% 20.00% Not available
Outstanding shares (Millions) [8] 141.79 982.99 31.22 15.91
Net Profit margin compare to industries 5Yrs [8] Lower Higher Lower Lower
ROE >12%[7] 12.7% 45.40% 34.20% -35.90%
Current ratio >1[7] 3.9 2.6 5.5 1.5
Debt/Equity ratio <1[7] 0.6 0.78 0.12 0.14
Calculated Debt servicing ratio <30% 11.02% 14.70% 0.89% 5.76%
Calculated Intrinsic Value 27.45 46.01 31.51 0.65
Current Trend Down Down Down Down

*The intrinsic value is calculated using 2 stage DCF model- 10yrs

 

News

PAR [17 Dec 2018]- PAR Technology SureCheck Food safety solution named to food logistics’ 2018 FL100 + Top software and Technology Providers [11]

 

 

 

Reference

[1]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-22/trump-said-to-discuss-firing-fed-s-powell-after-latest-rate-hike

[2] https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-wall-street-falls-mnuchin-163300626.html

[3] https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-just-told-buy-stocks-141420498.html

[4] https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/faang-kicks-losing-streak-post-210800875.html

[5] https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-resume-retreat-huge-153326611.html

[6] https://finance.yahoo.com/

[7] https://finviz.com/

[8] https://www.reuters.com/

[9] https://www.zacks.com/stocks/zacks-rank

[10] https://business.nasdaq.com/mediacenter/pressreleases/1862596/annual-changes-to-the-nasdaq-100-index

[11] https://www.partech.com/news/par-technologys-surecheck-food-safety-solution-named-to-food-logistics-2018-fl100-top-software-and-technology-providers/

2018 Annual Letter to the supporters of Dr Wealth

Click on 2018 Annual Letter to the supporters of Dr Wealth
for the source.
https://www.drwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/cropped-drwealth-favicon-32×32.jpg Author: Alvin Chow

It has always been a blessing to be writing an annual letter and to continue the tradition – it means that I’m still alive and kicking (ass). These were past years’ letters if you have missed it: 2015, 2016 and 2017. I have also noticed that the style of the letter changes every year. To […]
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Overview of Technology Sector (Dec 2018)

Click on Overview of Technology Sector (Dec 2018)
for the source.
Author: Marubozu

By: Soh YJ

 

NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) is a stock market index of all domestic and international based common stock and similar securities (ADRs, tracking stocks, REITs, limited partnership interests) listed on NASDAQ stock market. NASDAQ Composite is heavily weighted toward technology companies.

 

 

The top 10 companies, in term of market capital, in the NASDAQ are listed below table. As we can see most of the big players are mostly technology companies.

 

 

 

The NASDAQ Composite Index Trend

The chart represent the NASDAQ Composite Index. From the chart, we can notice 3 things:

  • The trend is always up through disaster after disaster
  • The market don’t go straight up, it fluctuate up and down when trending upward.
  • There are big ugly events

 

 

Why is market trend up in the long run? This is because market is not stagnant and is self-cleansing, companies routinely fade away and is replace by new blood. In the worst, scenario a stock can loss 100% of its value, disappeared and never be heard again. On the other hand, as new company grow, prosper and go public, they replace the dead and dying companies. When you own a stock, you own a piece of business fill with people working to expand and serve the customer base, competing in an unforgiving environment that reward those who can make it happen and discard those who cannot. Thus create an upward bias trend, however this only applicable for Index Fund.

 

Why most traders lose money? The market don’t go straight up. The price fluctuate while trending up. Nobody can time the market

 

DON’T

(1) Buy breakout and sell breakdown. Chasing the stock price around.

(2) Cut losses short and let the winner run.

(3) Size the position too big.

(4) Never cap their profit potential.

 

DO

(1) Buy into weakness, Sell into strength.

(2) Set a profit target & patient with losing trade

(3) Size the position correctly. So you would make decision based on logic rather than emotion

(4) Reduce cost basis. Making small profit over and over again is more sustainable.

 

Big ugly events in market, or is it? During certain timeline, certain event occurred and it causes high volatility in the stock market and people get emotional and start selling-off.

 

Long term Investor– Should not be too worry as you know market always trend upward.

 

  • You could continue to make your timely investment contribution. As a long term investor, you should have a diversified portfolio. This can be achieved easily by ETFs or unit trust without huge capital. Never invest in a single company as you never know if the company could survived 10 – 30 years down the road.
  • You can contribute more to your investment as the price will be cheaper than before. But do not overdo it as bear market normally last 2 – 3 years. Good to have some spare cash.

 

Trader– A perfect opportunity to earn some cash as the market may down more than 50%.

 

  • You could increase your position size (but don’t overdo it) either by shorting the Index fund or purchasing inverse ETF, while waiting for the market to recover.

 

 

Current Market Situation (21 Dec 2018)

 

The US-China Trade war had finally taken its toll on the US market. On September 2018, an evening star pattern mark the reversal of the NSADAQ Composite up trend. On December 2018, a bearish engulfment candlestick appeared.

 

FED announced raising the interest rate on 20 Dec 2018 and possible of 2[1] more raises in 2019, caused the stock to fall sharply as Nasdaq closes. Currently there is no clear support on the medium term, but looking at the whole timeline the nearest possible support should be around 4732 (down 40%).

Monthly candlestick pattern of NASDAQ Composite (18 Dec 2018)

 

Possible support for NASDAQ Composite @ long term

 

Top 3 Technology ETF for Investors

For long term investor, when selecting the ETF there is some considerations:

  • Expense ratio
    • Fees you have to pay annually, the lower the better
  • Market capitalization
    • Avoid closure/delist from the exchange [Big Cap- more $10B, Mid Cap- $10B to $2B, Small Cap- Less than $2B
  • Correlate to the index
    • You want the ETF as close as the index, market always go up in long term.

 

ETF TICKER Expense ratio[2]

[%]

Market Cap [Billion] [2] Beta[2]
Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index FTEC 0.08 2.22 1.08
Vanguard Information Technology Index VGT 0.1 21.69 1.08
Technology Select Sector SPDR XLK 0.13 19.12 0.99

 

 

 

Top 3 Technology ETF for Trader

For short to medium traders, different consideration to be considered.

  • Liquidity
    • Trader want to get in and out quick. The liquidity of ETFs is affected by the composition and trading volume of the holding securities.
  • Volatility
    • With higher volatility the % of price changes will be greater, while the trending is still following the index.

 

ETF TICKER Market Cap [Billion] [2] Beta[2]
SPDR S&P Biotech XBI 4.38 2.12
iShare Nasdaq Biotechnology IBB 8.35 1.63
Invesco Dynamic Biotechnology & Genome

 

PBE 0.29 1.7

 

 

 

Reference

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/fed-hikes-rates-by-a-quarter-point-.html

[2] https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/

Why Financial Advisors Help You Stay Rich, Not Make You Rich

Click on Why Financial Advisors Help You Stay Rich, Not Make You Rich
for the source.
https://www.drwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/cropped-drwealth-favicon-32×32.jpg Author: Alvin Chow

“Once in the dear dead days beyond recall, an out-of-town visitor was being shown the wonders of the New York financial district. When the party arrived at the Battery, one of his guides indicated some handsome ships riding at anchor. He said, ‘Look, those are the bankers’ and brokers’ yachts.’ ‘Where are the customers’ yachts?’ […]